For the second time this month, a ComRes opinion poll has Liberal Democrats on 20% (the party has not been this high with this pollster since 2010). A projection by the website Flavible Politics based on this poll, indicates a total of 83 seats for the LibDems at the next election – including (among many more) SW Surrey, Guildford, Mole Valley, Woking and Eshar & Walton)..
Other polling companies also reflect the LibDem surge. The poll tracking website Britain Elects has a graph that shows the rapid increase in LD support since the May local elections – with the most recent polling suggesting the start of a Swinson surge – just as the Boris bounce appears to have peaked.
The most important polls are not opinion polls, but those at the polling booth – and across the country, in local by-elections since May 2nd, LibDems have taken more votes in total then either the Conservatives, or Labour, as shown in the aggregate totals collected by Election Maps UK: While the LD share of the vote has gone up by 11% from the previous results in these wards, the Conservative share has dropped by 4% – and Labour by 8%.
At the parliamentary level, we gained one MP in the Brecon by-election – and six more who have joined us from other parties, in just the past few months. While both the other major parties are hopelessly divided, Liberal Democrats are clearly united and enthusiastic. They have the momentum, and with the wind at their back, a win in South West Surrey, which a short while back seemed impossible, now appears to be increasingly plausible.